Price changes of repeat-sales houses in Kaohsiung city: analyses based on hierarchical linear growth models
Abstract
This study adopts the hierarchical linear growth modeling approach to analyze the differences in the changes of repeat-sales house prices in Kaohsiung City from 2012 to 2020. The Level 1 time-varying factors include house age and the time of repeat-sales; the Level 2 factors include house attributes such as house area, house type, and house location. Based on the results of the null model, the estimated variance is 0.42816, with a 1% level of significance. This shows that significant differences exist in the mean repeat-sales prices between houses. The interclass correlation coefficient is 91.65%, showing that the interclass variation and intraclass variation of the mean repeat-sales prices are 91.65% and 8.35%, respectively. The estimation results of the non-randomly varying slope model indicate that the sales time and sales time squared significantly affect repeat-sales prices. The annual growth rate and quadratic growth of sales prices do not differ by house type (luxury condominiums and apartment buildings) but are affected by house area and house location. The effect of house age on repeat-sales prices is moderated by house area, house type, and house location.
Keyword : hierarchical linear growth modeling, repeat-sales, house prices, house area, house type, house location
How to Cite
Lee, C.-C., Wang, Y.-C., Liang, C.-M., & Yu, Z. (2023). Price changes of repeat-sales houses in Kaohsiung city: analyses based on hierarchical linear growth models. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 27(5), 290–303. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2023.19935
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Begiazi, K., & Katsiampa, P. (2019). Modelling UK house prices with structural breaks and conditional variance analysis. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 58(2), 290–309. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-018-9652-5
Beltrán, A., Maddison, D., & Elliott, R. (2019). The impact of flooding on property prices: a repeat-sales approach. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 95, 62–86. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2019.02.006
Bourassa, S. C., Haurin, D. R., Haurin, J. L., Hoesli, M., & Sun, J. (2009). House price changes and idiosyncratic risk: the impact of property characteristics. Real Estate Economics, 37(2), 259–278. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6229.2009.00242.x
Brown, K., & Uyar, B. (2004). A hierarchical linear model approach for assessing the effects of house and neighborhood characteristics on housing prices. Journal of Real Estate Practice and Education, 7(1), 15–24. https://doi.org/10.1080/10835547.2004.12091603
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Case, K. E., & Shiller, R. J. (1987). Prices of single family homes since 1970: new indexes for four cities (Working Paper No. 2393). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w2393
Clapham, E., Englund, P., Quigley, J. M., & Redfearn, C. L. (2004). Revisiting the past: revision in repeat sales and hedonic indexes of house prices (Working Paper No. 8594). University of Southern California, Lusk Center for Real Estate.
Clapp, J. M., & Giaccotto, C. (1998). Residential hedonic models: a rational expectations approach to age effects. Journal of Urban Economics, 44(3), 415–437. https://doi.org/10.1006/juec.1997.2076
Costello, G. (1997). Transaction based index methods for housing market analysis. Australian Land Economics Review, 3, 19–27.
Crone, T. M., & Voith, R. P. (1992). Estimating house price appreciation: a comparison of methods. Journal of Housing Economics, 2(4), 324–338. https://doi.org/10.1016/1051-1377(92)90007-D
Curran, P. J., Bauer, D. J., & Willoughby, M. T. (2006). Testing and probing interactions in hierarchical linear growth models. In C. S. Bergeman & S. M. Boker (Eds.), Methodological issues in aging research (pp. 99–129). Lawrence Erlbaum Associates Publishers.
Fitzmaurice, G. M., Laird, N. M., & Ware, J. H. (2012). Applied longitudinal analysis. John Wiley and Sons, Inc. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119513469
Frew, J., & Jud, G. D. (2003). Estimating the value of apartment buildings. The Journal of Real Estate Research, 25(1), 77–86. https://doi.org/10.1080/10835547.2003.12091101
Genesove, D., & Han, L. (2013). A spatial look at housing boom and bust cycles. In E. Glaeser & T. Sinai (Ed.), Housing and the financial crisis (pp. 105–142). University of Chicago Press. https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226030616.003.0004
Gibbs, C., Guttentag, D., Gretzel, U., Morton, J., & Goodwill, A. (2018). Pricing in the sharing economy: a hedonic pricing model applied to Airbnb listings. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 35(1), 46–56. https://doi.org/10.1080/10548408.2017.1308292
Giuliano, G., Gordon, P., Pan, Q., & Park, J. (2010). Accessibility and residential land values: some tests with new measures. Urban Studies, 47(14), 3103–3130. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098009359949
Goetzmann, W. N. (1992). The accuracy of real estate indices: repeat sale estimators. Journal of Real Estate Finance & Economics, 5(1), 5–53. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00153997
Goetzmann, W., & Spiegel, M. (1997). A spatial model of housing returns and neighborhood substitutability. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 14, 11–31. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007755932219
Guo, X., Zheng, S., Geltner, D., & Liu, H. (2014). A new approach for constructing home price indices: the pseudo repeat sales model and its application in China. Journal of Housing Economics, 25, 20–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2014.01.005
Halvorsen, R., & Pollakowski, H. O. (1981). Choice of functional form for hedonic price equations. Journal of Urban Economics, 10(1), 37–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/0094-1190(81)90021-8
Hansen, J. (2006). Australian house prices: a comparison of hedonic and repeat-sales measures. Economic Record, 85(269), 132–145. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4932.2009.00544.x
Harding, J. P., Rosenthal, S. S., & Sirmans, C. F. (2007). Depreciation of housing capital, maintenance, and house price inflation: estimates from a repeat sales model. Journal of Urban Economics, 61(2), 193–217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2006.07.007
Hill, R. J., & Trojanek, R. (2022). An evaluation of competing methods for constructing house price indexes: the case of Warsaw. Land Use Policy, 120, 106226. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2022.106226
Hox, J. J. (1995). Applied multilevel analysis. TT-Publikaties.
Hsiao, C. (1986). Analysis of panel data. Cambridge University Press. https://rodorigo.files.wordpress.com/2020/02/cheng-hsiao-analysis-of-panel-dataz-lib.org_.pdf
Hsieh, J. Y. (2015). HLM multilevel linear analysis: theory, methods, and practice. Ting Mao Books. http://utaipeir.lib.utaipei.edu.tw/dspace/handle/987654321/4727
Hudson, C., Hudson, J., & Morley, B. (2018). Differing house price linkages across UK regions: a multi-dimensional recursive ripple model. Urban Studies, 55(8), 1636–1654. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098017700804
Kim, K., & Lahr, M. L. (2014). The impact of Hudson-Bergen Light Rail on residential property appreciation. Papers in Regional Science, 93(Sl), 79–97. https://doi.org/10.1111/pirs.12038
Kraemer, H. C., & Blasey, C. M. (2004). Centring in regression analyses: a strategy to prevent errors in statistical inference. International Journal of Methods in Psychiatric Research, 13(3), 141–151. https://doi.org/10.1002/mpr.170
Kreft, I. G., & de Leeuw, J. (1998). Varying and random coefficient models. In Introducing multilevel modeling (pp. 35–56). Sage Publications, Ltd. https://doi.org/10.4135/9781849209366.n3
Lee, C. C., & Ton, T. C. (2010). Multilevel analysis of a housing hedonic price model. Taiwan Economic Review, 38(2), 289–325. http://www.econ.ntu.edu.tw/ter/new/data/new/TER38-2/TER382-4.pdf
Lee, C. C., Huang, L. Y., & You, S. M. (2013). The changes and trends in urban land prices: an application of hierarchical growth modelling. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 3(5), 579–592. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2015.11.016
Liou, F. M., Yang, S. Y., Chen, B., & Hsieh, W. P. (2016). The effects of mass rapid transit station on the house prices in Taipei: the hierarchical linear model of individual growth. Pacific Rim Property Research Journal, 22(1), 3–16. https://doi.org/10.1080/14445921.2016.1158938
Lisi, G. (2019). Property valuation: the hedonic pricing model – location and housing submarkets. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 37(6), 589–596. https://doi.org/10.1108/JPIF-07-2019-0093
Lu, B., Charlton, M., & Fotheringhama, A. S. (2011). Geographically weighted regression using a non-Euclidean distance metric with a study on London house price data. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 7, 92–97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proenv.2011.07.017
Lyndsey, R., van Dijk, D., & van de Minne, A. (2020). Housing vintage and price dynamics. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 84, 103569. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2020.103569
Martins-Filho, C., & Bin, O. (2005). Estimation of hedonic price functions via additive nonparametric regression. Empirical Economics, 30, 93–114. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-004-0224-6
Melser, D. (2017). Disaggregated property price appreciation: the mixed repeat sales model. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 66, 108–118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2017.05.007
Melser, D. (2023). Selection bias in housing price indexes: the characteristics repeats sales approach. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 85(3), 623–637. https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12534
Miles, W. (2017). Has there actually been a sustained increase in the synchronization of house price (and business) cycles across countries? Journal of Housing Economics, 36, 25–43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2017.02.002
Moralı, O., & Yılmaz, N. (2022). An analysis of spatial dependence in real estate prices. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 64, 93–115. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-020-09794-1
Nelson, J. R., & Schumaker, S. (2001). Utilization of income multipliers to evaluate development pressures on farmland in Canyon County, Idaho. Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.305026
Rahman, M. Z., Vidyattama, Y., Akbar, D., & Rolfe, J. (2018, December 6–8). The impact of location factors on housing price variation in Melbourne: a case study of Western Melbourne Metropolitan Region. In 41st Annual Conference of the Australian and New Zealand Regional Science Association International (ANZRSAI) (pp. 158–171), Toowoomba, Australia. ANZRSAI.
Reichel, V., & Zimčík, P. (2018). Determinants of real estate prices in the statutory city of Brno. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 66(4), 991–999. https://doi.org/10.11118/actaun201866040991
Rosen, S. (1974). Hedonic prices and implicit markets: product differentiation in pure competition. Journal of Political Economy, 82(1), 34–55. https://doi.org/10.1086/260169
Rossini, P. (1997). Artificial neural networks versus multiple regression in the valuation of residential property. Australian Land Economics Review, 3, 1–12.
Ryu, K. M., & Song, K. W. (2020). The development and application of office price index for benchmark in Seoul using repeat sales model. LHI Journal of Land, Housing, and Urban Affairs, 11(2), 33–46. https://doi.org/10.5804/LHIJ.2020.11.2.33
Shen, T. Y., Yu, H. C., Zhou, L., Gu, H., & He, H. (2020). On hedonic price of second-hand houses in Beijing based on multi-scale geographically weighted regression: scale law of spatial heterogeneity. Economic Geography, 40(3), 75–83.
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