Measuring and assessing the impact of the global economic crisis on European real property market
Abstract
Economic development of countries, regions or entities operating on the market is possible when favourable economic conditions outweigh adverse conditions. Examining the development of European economy, it is possible to observe this regularity in the majority of periods, i.e. the bull market had a more intense and longer impact on the economy in comparison with the bear market, enabling constant economic development of Europe. Globalisation, a relative ease of financing investment activity, financial over-liquidity, negative interest rates: all of them result in the fact that previously verified and correctly operating mechanisms and market models have become unpredictable. During the latest crisis, the European real property market lost some part of its potential. The loss varied in individual EU member-countries. Some of them coped with the crisis quite successfully, others managed to do so on the average, still others have felt its effects until today. Making use of regressive techniques, the author undertook to measure and assess the impact of the global crisis on the property market. Consequently, the effects and intensity of its impact regarding the number of issued building permits, number of the employed in construction industry, value of construction production and prices of real property were measured.
Keyword : global economic crisis, real estate, housing market, macroeconomic factors, European countries, regression analysis
How to Cite
Mach, Łukasz. (2019). Measuring and assessing the impact of the global economic crisis on European real property market. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 20(6), 1189-1209. https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2019.11234
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Asal, M. (2019). Is there a bubble in the Swedish housing market? Journal of European Real Estate Research, 12(1), 32-61. https://doi.org/10.1108/JERER-03-2018-0013
Baltagi, B. H. (2011). Econometrics (5th ed.). New York and Heidelberg: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-20059-5
Bardhan A., & Kroll, C. (2007). Globalization and the real estate industry: Issues, implications and opportunities. Paper Prepared for the Sloan Industry Studies Annual Conference. Fisher Centre for Real Estate and Urban Economics, University of California, (Cambridge) Berkeley.
Bernanke, B. S., & Gertler, M. (2001). Should central banks respond to movements in asset prices? American Economic Review, 91(2), 253-257. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.2.253
Błach, J., & Wieczorek-Kosmala, M. (2012). Investment risk in time of the global financial crisis – em-pirical study of Silesian companies. In 6th International Scientific Conference Managing and Modelling of Financial Risks (pp. 33-41). VŠB-TU Ostrava, Czech Republic.
Bordo, M. (2018). A historical perspective on financial stability and monetary policy regimes: A case for caution in central banks current obsession with financial stability (Working Paper 5/2018). Norges Bank. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3160020
Brunnermeier, M., & Schnabel, I. (2016). Bubbles and central banks: historical perspectives. In Central banks at a crossroads – what can we learn from history? (pp. 493-562). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316570401.013
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Case, B., & Quigley, J. M. (1991). The dynamics of real estate prices. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 73(1), 50-58. https://doi.org/10.2307/2109686
Case, K. E., & Shiller, R. T. (2003). Is there a bubble in the housing market? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, (2), 299-342. https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2004.0004
Chaney, T., Sraer, D., & Thesmar, D. (2012). The collateral channel: How real estate shocks affect corporate investment. The American Economic Review, 102(6), 2381-2409. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.102.6.2381
Claessens, S. (2013). Financial crises: Explanations, types, and implications (pp. 4-10). International Monetary Fund, Washington. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2295201
Crotty, J. (2009). Structural causes of the global financial crisis: a critical assessment of the “new financial architecture”. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 33(4), 563-580. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bep023
Crosby, N., Jackson, C., & Orr, A. (2016). Refining the real estate pricing model. Journal of Property Research, 33(4), 332-358. https://doi.org/10.1080/09599916.2016.1237539
Crowe, C., Dell’Ariccia, G., Igan, D., & Rabanal, P. (2013). How to deal with real estate booms: Lessons from country experiences. Journal of Financial Stability, 9, 300-319. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2013.05.003
D’Alpaos, C., & Canesi, R. (2014). Risks assessment in real estate investments in times of global crisis. WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics, 11, 369-379.
Dallas, R., & Sin, Y. K. (2017). The globalisation of local real estate: The politics and practice of foreign real estate investment. International Journal of Housing Policy, 17(1), 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1080/19491247.2016.1270618
Davidson, R., & MacKinnon, K. G. (2004). Econometric theory and methods. New York and Oxford University Press.
De Paoli, B., & Paustian, M. (2017). Coordinating monetary and macro-prudential policies. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 49, 319-349. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12381
Detken, C., & Smets, F. (2004). Asset price booms and monetary policy (Working Paper Series, No. 364). European Central Bank, Frankfurt.
Dias, F., Pinheiro, M., & Rua, A. (2018). Forecasting Portuguese GDP with factor models: Pre- and post-crisis evidence. Economic Modelling, 44, 266-272. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.10.034
Economou, F., Gavriilidis, K., Gregoriou, G. N., & Kallinterakis, V. (2017). Handbook of investors’ behaviour during financial crises. Academic Press an imprint of Elsevier.
Geipele, S., & Auzins, A. (2015). The development of housing sector and residential real estate market after economic recession in Latvia. Baltic Journal of Real Estate Economics and Construction Management, 3(1), 103-119. https://doi.org/10.1515/bjreecm-2015-0011
Gibson, H. D., Hall, S. G., & Tavlas, G. S. (2012). The Greek financial crisis: Growing imbalances and sovereign spreads. Journal of International Money and Finance, 31, 498-516. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2011.10.009
Go, M. H. (2013). The power of participation: Explaining the issuance of building permits in Post-Katrina New Orleans. Urban Affairs Review, 50(1), 34-62. https://doi.org/10.1177/1078087413476462
Groh, M. (2014). Strategic management in times of crisis. American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, 6(2), 49-57. https://doi.org/10.3844/ajebasp.2014.49.57
Gurtner, B. (2010). The financial and economic crisis and developing countries. International Development Policy, 1, 189-213. https://doi.org/10.4000/poldev.144
Himmelberg, C., Meyer, C., & Sinai, T. (2005). Assessing high house prices: Bubbles, fundamentals and misperceptions. Journal of Economic Perspectives 19(4), 67-92. https://doi.org/10.1257/089533005775196769
Hunter, W. B., Kaufman, G. G., & Pormerleano, M. (2005). Asset price bubbles: The implications for monetary, regulatory and international policies. Cambridge MA: MIT Press.
Hyndman, R. J., & Athanasopoulos, G. (2018). Forecasting: principles and practice. Monash University, Australia.
Kapelko, M., Lansink, A. O., & Stefanou, S. E. (2014). Assessing dynamic inefficiency of Spanish construction sector pre- and post-financial crisis. European Journal of Operational Research, 237(1), 349-357. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2014.01.047
Kawamura, E. (2004). Investor’s distrust and the marketing of new financial assets. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 44(2), 265-295. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1062-9769(03)00003-6
Keynes, J. M. (2003). The general theory of employment, interest and money. Cambridge, UK: Palgrave MacMillan.
Kivedal, B. K. (2013). Testing for rational bubbles in the US housing market. Journal of Macroeconomics, 38, 369-381. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2013.08.021
Kokot, S. (2014). The analysis of differences in residential property price indices. Real Estate Management and Valuation, 22(3), 14-27. https://doi.org/10.2478/remav-2014-0023
Kucharska-Stasiak, E. (2016). The economic dimension of real estate. PWN, Warszawa (in Polish).
Lane, P. R. (2012). The European sovereign debt crisis. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 26(3), 49-68. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.26.3.49
Lapavitsas, C. (2012). Crisis in the Eurozone. Verso Books.
Mach, Ł. (2012). Determinanty ekonomiczno-gospodarcze oraz ich wpływ na rozwój rynku nieruchomości mieszkaniowych [Economic determinants and their impact on development of residential real estate market]. Econometrics, 4(38), 106-116 (in Polish).
Mach, Ł. (2016). An evaluation of the real estate market development with a special consideration of the building process stage. Econometrics 4(54), 95-107. https://doi.org/10.15611/ekt.2016.4.07
Mach, Ł., & Rącka, I. (2018). An analysis of the impact and influence of the global economic crisis on the housing market in European post-communist countries. In Proceedings of the 32nd International Business Information Management Association Conference (IBIMA) (pp. 2573-2584), 15-16 November 2018, Seville, Spain.
Maddala, G. S. (1992). Introduction to econometrics. USA: Macmallan Publishing Company.
Marinov, E. (2015). Economic determinants of regional integration in developing countries. International Journal of Business and Management, 3(3), 22-39. https://doi.org/10.20472/BM.2015.3.3.003
Neal, L., & Garcia-Iglesias, M. C. (2013). The economy of Spain in the euro-zone before and after the crisis of 2008. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 53, 336-344. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2013.01.002
Netzell, O. (2012). A method for combining transaction- and valuation-based date in a property price index (pp. 1-28). Building and real Estate Economics, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm.
Ngai, R., & Tenreyro, S. (2014). Hot and cold seasonal in the housing market. The American Economic Review, 104(12), 3991-4026. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.12.3991
Ofori, G. (2007). Construction in developing countries. Construction Management and Economics, 25(1), 1-6. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446190601114134
Ozturk, S., & Sozdemir, A. (2015). Effects of global financial crisis on Greece economy. Procedia Economics and Finance, 23, 568-575. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00441-4
Roubini, N. (2006). Why central banks should burst bubbles. International Finance, 9(1), 87-107. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2362.2006.00032.x
Sandor, G., & Reiner, M. (2010). The impact of the global economic and financial crisis on Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe (Occasional Paper Series, No. 114, pp. 1-67). European Central Bank.
Schoenmaker, D., & Vlist, A. (2015). On real estate development activity: the relationship between commercial and residential real estate markets. Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 8(3), 219-232. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12076-015-0144-4
Sironi, A. (2018). The evolution of banking regulation since the financial crisis: A critical assessment (November). BAFFI CAREFIN Centre Research Paper No. 2018-103. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3304672
Somerville, T. (2001). Permits, starts, and completions: Structural relationships versus real options. Real Estate Economics, 29, 161-190. https://doi.org/10.1111/1080-8620.00006
Sornette, D., & Woodard, R. (2010). Financial bubbles, real estate bubbles, derivative bubbles, and the financial and economic crisis. In M. Takayasu, T. Watanabe, & H. Takayasu (Eds.), Econophysics approaches to large-scale business data and financial crisis. Tokyo: Springer. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1407608
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