Developing an economic and social security index for Euro-Atlantic area countries: a panel data analysis
Abstract
The concepts of economic and social security are very complex and dynamic, closely related to many new challenges that characterize today’s societies. Our research aims at investigating the economic and social security considering the current vulnerabilities, using an integrated multicriteria approach to this issue, taking into account five pillars (dimensions): demographic, climate, globalization, and ITC adaptation, social, and economic. Based on these dimensions, we developed an Economic and Social Security Index across the Euro-Atlantic countries and we found that the European Union (EU) is better positioned compared to the other country-groups analysed. Furthermore, we estimated the effects of duration of schooling and climate degradation on economic growth, by using the Panel EGLS method over the period 2010–2019, and we compared the results obtained for EU countries to the ones obtained for the other groups of countries in EuroAtlantic space: EU neighbours and candidate/potential candidate countries and other Eastern EU neighbourhood countries. We found a positive impact of the duration of schooling on the economic growth, which is greater in countries registering high levels of socio-economic security, the effect of the duration of schooling varying depending on the quality of education. In terms of the effects of CO2 emissions on economic growth, we found a negative impact, considering the one year lag.
Keyword : economic security, social security, economic growth, schooling, environment, demographic
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
Ahmed, E. M. (2021). Modelling information and communications technology cyber security externalities spillover effects on sustainable economic growth. Journal of The Knowledge Economy, 12(1), 412–430. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-020-00627-3
Ang, J. B. (2008). Economic development, pollutant emissions and energy consumption in Malaysia. Journal of Policy Modelling, 30(2), 271–278. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2007.04.010
Azam, M., Khan, A. Q., Abdullah, H. B., & Qureshi, M. E. (2016). The impact of CO2 emissions on economic growth: Evidence from selected higher CO2 emissions economies. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 23(7), 6376–6389. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-015-5817-4
Balitskiy, S., Bilan, Y., Strielkowski, W., & Štreimikienė, D. (2016). Energy efficiency and natural gas consumption in the context of economic development in the European Union. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 55(C), 156–168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.10.053
Baltagi B. H. (2005). Econometrics analysis of panel data (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Beland, L., Brodeur, A., & Wright, T. (2020). The short-term economic consequences of Covid-19: Exposure to disease, remote work and government response (IZA Discussion Paper No. 13159). Institute of Labor Economics. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3584922
Benos, N., & Zotou, S. (2014). Education and economic growth: A meta-regression analysis. World Development, 64(C), 669–689. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.06.034
Bhattacharya, M., Paramati, S. R., Ozturk, I., & Bhattacharya, S. (2016). The effect of renewable energy consumption on economic growth: Evidence from top 38 countries. Applied Energy, 162(C), 733–741. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.10.104
Borowski, P., & Patuk, I. (2021). Environmental, social and economic factors in sustainable development with food, energy and eco-space aspect security. Present Environment and Sustainable Development, 15(1), 153–169. https://doi.org/10.15551/pesd2021151012
Bosworth, B., & Collins, S. (2003). The empirics of growth: An update. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2003(2), 113–206. https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2004.0002
Carone, G., Costello, D., Guardia, N. D., Mourre, G., Przywara, B., & Salomaki, A. (2005). The economic impact of ageing populations in the EU25 Member States (Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs European Economy Economic Working Paper No. 236). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.873872
Cuaresma, J. C., Doppelhofer, G., & Feldkircher, M. (2014). The determinants of economic growth in European regions. Regional Studies, 48(1), 44–67. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2012.678824
Damon, J. (2016). The socio-economic impact of social security (ISSA research report). International Social Security Association, Geneva. https://ww1.issa.int/sites/default/files/documents/publications/2-ISSA_SEISS-205770.pdf
Dang H. A. H., & Nguyen, C. V. (2021). Gender inequality during the COVID-19 pandemic: Income, expenditure, savings, and job loss. World Development, 140, 105296. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105296
Ehrlich, I., & Lui, F. T. (1998). Social security, the family, and economic growth. Economic Inquiry, 36(3), 390–409. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.1998.tb01722.x
European Commission. (1993). Growth, competitiveness, employment – The challenges and ways forward into the 21st century – White Paper. https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/4e6ecfb6-471e-4108-9c7d-90cb1c3096af/language-en
European Commission. (2010). Europe 2020. A Europe strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth. https://ec.europa.eu/eu2020/pdf/COMPLET%20EN%20BARROSO%20%20%20007%20-%20Europe%202020%20-%20EN%20version.pdf
European Commission. (2020a). The impact of COVID confinement measures on EU labor market. https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/sites/jrcsh/files/jrc.120585_policy.brief_impact.of_.COVID-19.on_.eu-labour.market.pdf
European Commission. (2020b). 2020 European semester: Country reports. https://ec.europa.eu/info/publications/2020-european-semester-country-reports_en
European Commission. (2021). The 2021 ageing report: Economic and budgetary projections for the EU member states (2019–2070). https://ec.europa.eu/info/publications/2021-ageing-report-economic-and-budgetary-projections-eu-member-states-2019-2070_en
European Parliament. (2016). Addressing global poverty and insecurity through better transatlantic cooperation. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2016/586646/EPRS_BRI(2016)586646_EN.pdf
Eurostat. (2022). Database. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database
Feldmann, H. (2004). How flexible are labour markets in the EU accession countries Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic? Comparative Economic Studies, 46(2), 272–310. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.ces.8100026
Francu, L., Hlousek, M., & Mikula, S. (2015, February). Determinants of economic growth. International Conference Hradec Economic Days, 5(4), 146–153.
Goczek, L., Witkowska, E., & Witkowski, B. (2021). How does education quality affect economic growth? Sustainability, 13(11), 6437. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13116437
Gongcheng, Z., & Scholz, W. (2019). Global social security and economic development: Retrospect and prospect. International Labour Organization. https://www.ilo.org/beijing/information-resources/public-information/factsheets/WCMS_723404/lang--en/index.htm
Hanushek, E. A., & Wößmann, L. (2007). The role of education in economic growth (Policy Research Working Paper 4122). The World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-4122
Heritage Foundation. (2022). Heritage Database. https://www.heritage.org/index/
Ignatov, A. (2019). Analysis of the dynamics of the European economic security in the conditions of a changing socio-economic environment. New Medit, 18(2), 15–38. https://doi.org/10.30682/nm1902b
International Labor Organization. (2020a). The world of work in a time by COVID-19. ILO. https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---americas/---ro-lima/---sro-port_of_spain/documents/meetingdocument/wcms_741723.pdf
International Labor Organization. (2020b). ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work. Third edition. https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/@dgreports/@dcomm/documents/briefingnote/wcms_743146.pdf
International Monetary Fund. (2022). World Economic Outlook databases. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending
Kasperowicz, R. (2015). Economic growth and CO2 emissions: The ECM analysis. Journal of International Studies, 8(3), 91–98.
Kotschy, R., & Sunde, U. (2018). Can education compensate the effect of population ageing on macroeconomic performance? Economic Policy, 33(96), 587–634. https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiy011
Leit, N. C. (2014). Economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions, renewable energy and globalization. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 4(3), 391–399.
Maity, S., & Sinha, A. (2021). Linkages between economic growth and population ageing with a knowledge spillover effect. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 12(4), 1905–1924. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-020-00696-4
Moen, P., Pedtke, J. H., & Flood, S. (2020). Disparate disruptions: Intersectional COVID-19 employment effects by age, gender, education, and race / ethnicity. Work Aging and Retirement, 6(4), 207–228. https://doi.org/10.1093/workar/waaa013
North Atlantic Treaty Organization. (2022). Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49276.htm
Okewu, E., Misra, S., Fernandez-Sanz, L., Maskeliunas, R., & Damaševičius, R. (2018). An e-Environment system for socio-economic sustainability and national security. Problemy Ekorozwoju, 13(1), 121–132.
OECD. (2008). Handbook on constructing composite indicators: Methodology and user guide. OECD Publications, Paris. https://www.oecd.org/sdd/42495745.pdf
OECD. (2020). Coronavirus: The world economy at risk. OECD Interim Economic Assessment. https://www.oecd.org/berlin/publikationen/Interim-Economic-Assessment-2-March-2020.pdf
Osaulenko, O., Yatsenko, O., Reznikova, N., Rusak, D. & Nitsenko, V. (2020). The productive capacity of countries through the prism of sustainable development goals: Challenges to international economic security and to competitiveness. Financial and Credit Activity: Problems of Theory and Practice, 2(33), 492–499. https://doi.org/10.18371/fcaptp.v2i33.207214
Our World in Data Database. (2022). Database. https://ourworldindata.org/
Rahman, M. M., & Alam, K. (2021). Exploring the driving factors of economic growth in the world’s largest economies. Heliyon, 7(5), e07109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e07109
Rauter, R., Globocnik, D., Perl-Vorbach, E., & Baumgartner, R. J. (2019). Open innovation and its effects on economic and sustainability innovation performance. Journal of Innovation & Knowledge, 4(4), 226–233. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jik.2018.03.004
Roggeri, P., Belward, A., Mayaux, P., Hugh, E., Brink, A., Dubois, G., Peedell, S., & Olivier, L. (2010). Sustainable development in developing countries: The African, Caribbean and Pacific Observatory. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 16(4), 736–752. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2010.45
Saidi, K., & Hammami, S. (2015). The impact of energy consumption and CO2 emissions on economic growth: Fresh evidence from dynamic simultaneous-equations models. Sustainable Cities and Society, 14, 178–186. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2014.05.004
Scholte, J. (1998). The IMF meets civil society. Finance and Development, 35(3), 42–45. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451952278.022
Serban, A. C., & Lytras, M. D. (2020). Artificial intelligence for smart renewable energy sector in Europe – Smart energy infrastructures for next generation smart cities. IEEE Access, 8(1), 77364–77377. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2020.2990123
Serban, A. C., Pelinescu, E., & Dospinescu, A. S. (2022). Beta convergence analysis of gross value added in the high-technology manufacturing industries. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 28(2), 290–312. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2021.15918
Dias, M. C., Joyce, R., Postel-Vinay, F., & Xu, X. (2020). The challenges for labour market policy during the COVID-19 pandemic. Fiscal Studies, 41(2), 371–382. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-5890.12233
Singh, N., Nyuur, R., & Richmond, B. (2019). Renewable energy development as a driver of economic growth: Evidence from a multivariate panel data analysis. Sustainability, 11(8), 2418. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11082418
Shahbaz, M., Hye, Q. M. A. H., Tiwari, A. K., & Leitão, N. C. (2013). Economic growth, energy consumption, financial development, international trade and CO2 emissions in Indonesia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 25, 109–121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2013.04.009
Smolentseva, A. (2012). Access to higher education in the Post-Soviet states: Between Soviet legacy and global challenges. Salzburg Global Seminars, Austria. Statista. (2022). Database. https://www.statista.com/
Tiwari, A. K. (2011). Energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth: A revisit of the evidence from India. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 11(2), 165–189.
Tomislav, K. (2018). The concept of sustainable development: From its beginning to the contemporary issues. Zagreb International Review of Economics & Business, 21(1), 67–94. https://doi.org/10.2478/zireb-2018-0005
United Nations. (2015). Transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable development. Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
United Nations. (2020a). Shared responsibility, global solidarity: Responding to the socio-economic impacts of COVID-19. https://unsdg.un.org/sites/default/files/2020-03/SG-Report-Socio-Economic-Impact-of-Covid19.pdf
United Nations. (2020b). Recovering better: Economic and social challenges and opportunities. https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/RECOVER_BETTER_0722-1.pdf
United Nations. (2021). A new global deal must promote economic security. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Decade of Action. Policy Brief No 90. https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/wp-content/uploads/sites/45/publication/PB_90.pdf
United Nations. (2022). UN Database. https://data.un.org/Default.aspx
Vlasov, M. V. (2021). Regional economic security in innovative digital environment of Russia. International Transaction Journal of Engineering Management & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 12(4), 12A4P. World Data. (2022). Database. https://www.worlddata.info/
World Economic Forum. (2019). Global competitiveness report 2019. Geneva, Switzerland. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_TheGlobalCompetitivenessReport2019.pdf?_gl=1*1v8usri*_up*MQ..&gclid=Cj0KCQiA1NebBhDDARIsAANiDD3-ZKDPsJ3XbKBaJs8X2KhgEN6KeTd0-LoiTH2qylHGJF-JPIw-pIUaAhJ-EALw_wcB
Wang, S. (2020). Spatial patterns and social-economic influential factors of population aging: A global assessment from 1990 to 2010. Social Science & Medicine, 253(1), 112963. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.112963
Wooldridge, J. M. (2010). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data (2nd ed.) The MIT Press. World Bank. (2022). World development indicators. https://datatopics.worldbank.org/world-development-indicators/
World Inequality Database. (2022). Database. https://wid.world/
Yenilmez, M. I. (2015). Economic and social consequences of population aging the dilemmas and opportunities in the twenty-first century. Applied Research in Quality of Life, 10(4), 735–752. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11482-014-9334-2
Zhang, X. P., & Cheng, X. M. (2009). Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China. Ecological Economics, 68(10), 2706–2712. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.05.011
Zimková, E., Vidiečanová, M., & Cisková, P. (2021). Determinants of economic growth in the European Union countries. Statistika – Statistics and Economic Journal, 101(4), 357–369. https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2021.16