The potential of macroeconomic factors in shaping the landscape of technological development: a testimonial from upper-middle-income countries
Abstract
Purpose – the main goal of the paper is to examine the role of macroeconomic factors in promoting the technological development of upper-middle-income countries.
Research methodology – to carry on with the investigation the paper selected the expenditure in research and development as a proxy for technological advancement while GDP per capita, Final consumption expenditure, Domestic credit to the private sector, national income, and government transparency are selected as proxies for the macroeconomic indicators. Moreover, a VECM approach is performed in order to capture the long-run and short-run relationship among the variables. Additionally, a Granger causality test was used to observe the causality direction among the variables.
Findings – the obtained results revealed that in the short run, all the selected variables have no prominent impact on R&D expenditure. However, the long run result, presented that the transparency situation of upper-middle-income countries, simultaneously the governments’ final consumption, the amount of credit provided to the private sector, and national income are unfavorably affecting technological development while the GDP is positively affecting the expenditure in R&D.
Research limitations – the exclusive focus on macroeconomic factors and upper-middle-income countries as well as the fact of excluding the role of micro factors and low-income countries are the major limitation of the study.
Practical implications – policymakers and nations looking to accomplish technological transformation in the age of digitization can benefit from the study’s findings.
Originality/Value – since prior studies highlighted the link of macroeconomic factors with specific sectors such as healthcare, education, and agriculture. Thus, giving little attention to or neglecting the information technology sector that compromises a more specific branch such as research and development. For that reason, this paper will bring light to this phenomenon.
Keyword : macroeconomic factors, R&D, technological development, upper-middle-income countries
How to Cite
Aden Dirir, S. (2023). The potential of macroeconomic factors in shaping the landscape of technological development: a testimonial from upper-middle-income countries. Business, Management and Economics Engineering, 21(1), 84–105. https://doi.org/10.3846/bmee.2023.18360
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Alam, A., Uddin, M., & Yazdifar, H. (2019b). Institutional determinants of R&D investment: Evidence from emerging markets. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 138, 34–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.08.007
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Barkhordari, S., Fattahi, M., & Azimi, N. A. (2019). The impact of knowledge-based economy on growth performance: Evidence from MENA countries. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 10(3), 1168–1182. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-018-0522-4
Bassanini, A., Scarpetta, S., & Hemmings, P. (2001). Economic growth: The role of policies and institutions. Panel data evidence from OECD countries (Working Paper No. 283). OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/722675213381
Beladi, H., Deng, J., & Hu, M. (2021). Cash flow uncertainty, financial constraints, and R&D investment. International Review of Financial Analysis, 76, 101785. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101785
Bengoa, M., Martínez-San Román, V., & Pérez, P. (2017). Do R&D activities matter for productivity? A regional spatial approach assessing the role of human and social capital. Economic Modelling, 60, 448–461. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.09.005
Bismala, L., Andriany, D., & Siregar, G. (2020). Development strategy analysis of technology business incubators in small medium enterprises accompaniment. Journal of Critical Reviews, 7(1), 221–225. https://doi.org/10.31838/jcr.07.01.39
Bor, Y. J., Chuang, Y. C., Lai, W. W., & Yang, C. M. (2010). A dynamic general equilibrium model for public R&D investment in Taiwan. Economic Modelling, 27(1), 171–183. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2009.08.007
Bottazzi, L., & Peri, G. (2007). The international dynamics of R&D and innovation in the long run and in the short run. The Economic Journal, 117, 486–511. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2007.02027.x
Bozkurt, C. (2015). R&D expenditures and economic growth relationship in Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(1), 188–198. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ijefi/issue/31967/352117?publisher=http-www-cag-edu-tr-ilhan-ozturk
Castellani, D., Piva, M., Schubert, T., & Vivarelli, M. (2019). R&D and productivity in the US and the EU: Sectoral specificities and differences in the crisis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 138, 279–291. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.10.001
Cassiman, B., & Veugelers, R. (2002). R&D cooperation and spillovers: Some empirical evidence from Belgium. American Economic Review, 92(4), 1169–1184. https://doi.org/10.1257/00028280260344704
Chen, D., Zheng, S., & Guo, L. (2015). The impact of science and technology policies on rapid economic development in China. In The Global Innovation Index 2015, 105.
Chen, Z., Liu, Z., Suárez Serrato, J. C., & Xu, D. Y. (2021). Notching R&D investment with corporate income tax cuts in China. American Economic Review, 111(7), 2065–2100. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20191758
Chu, A. C., Cozzi, G., Lai, C. C., & Liao, C. H. (2015). Inflation, R&D and growth in an open economy. Journal of International Economics, 96(2), 360–374. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2015.03.007
Cincera, M., Czartnitzki, D., & Thorwarth, S. (2007). Efficiency of public spending in support of R&D activities. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/8efc/9525770aa53ccfe5ba503d27b1ab254e3e5f.pdf
Coccia, M. (2018). Optimization in R&D intensity and tax on corporate profits for supporting labor productivity of nations. The Journal of Technology Transfer, 43(3), 792–814. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10961-017-9572-1
Cui, Y. J. (2016). Technological innovation in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS): An organizational ecology perspective. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 107, 28–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.02.001
Czyżewski, B., & Majchrzak, A. (2018). Market versus agriculture in Poland–macroeconomic relations of incomes, prices and productivity in terms of the sustainable development paradigm. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 24(2), 318–334. https://doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2016.1212743
Das, R. C., & Mukherjee, S. (2020). Do spending on R&D influence income? An enquiry on the World’s leading economies and groups. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 11, 1295–1315. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-019-00609-0
Darvas, Z. M. (2018). The macroeconomic implications of healthcare. Bruegel Policy Contribution, (No. 2018/11).
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427–431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
Godil, D. I., Sharif, A., Ali, M. I., Ozturk, I., & Usman, R. (2021). The role of financial development, R&D expenditure, globalization and institutional quality in energy consumption in India: New evidence from the QARDL approach. Journal of Environmental Management, 285, 112208. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112208
Gokhberg, L. (1999). R&D Statistics in Russia: Changes and challenges. Centre for Science Research and Statistics.
Guellec, D., & Van Pottelsberghe de la Potterie, B. (2004). From R&D to productivity growth: Do the institutional settings and the source of funds of R&D matter?. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 66(3), 353–378. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2004.00083.x
Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 37(3), 424–438. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791
Guceri, I., & Liu, L. (2019). Effectiveness of fiscal incentives for R&D: Quasi-experimental evidence. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 11(1), 266–291. https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20170403
Gujarati, D., & Porter, D. C. (2010). Functional forms of regression models. In Essentials of econometrics (pp. 132–177). McGraw-Hill Education.
Hasan, I., & Tucci, C. L. (2010). The innovation–economic growth nexus: Global evidence. Research Policy, 39(10), 1264–1276. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2010.07.005
Kirca, M., Canbay, Ş., Veysel, İ. N. A. L., & Genç, S. Y. (2021). Causality relationships between per capita income and research and development (R&D) expenditures in Asian Tigers, China, and Turkey. Sosyoekonomi, 29(48), 11–30. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.02.01
Khan, M., & Luintel, K. (2006). Sources of knowledge and productivity: How robust is the relationship? (No. 2006/6). OECD Publishing.
Knoll, B., Riedel, N., Schwab, T., Todtenhaupt, M., & Voget, J. (2021). Cross-border effects of R&D tax incentives. Research Policy, 50(9), 104326. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2021.104326
Lee, S. (2018). Growth, profits, and R&D investment. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 31(1), 607–625. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2018.1432380
Ientile, D., & Mairesse, J. (2009). A policy to boost R&D: Does the R&D tax credit work?. EIB Papers, 14(1), 144–169.
Muscio, A., & Ciffolilli, A. (2018). Technological diversity in Europe: Empirical evidence from agri-food research projects. Regional Studies, 52(3), 374–387. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2017.1301662
Muscio, A., & Ciffolilli, A. (2020). What drives the capacity to integrate Industry 4.0 technologies? Evidence from European R&D projects. Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 29(2), 169–183. https://doi.org/10.1080/10438599.2019.1597413
Olilingo, F. Z., & Putra, A. H. P. K. (2020). How Indonesia economics works: Correlation analysis of macroeconomics in 2010–2019. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics, and Business, 7(8), 117–130. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no8.117
Peng, L. (2010). Study on the relationship between R&D expenditure and economic growth of China. In Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Innovation & Management (Vol. 1725, p. 1728).
Phillips, P. C., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
Prokop, V., Stejskal, J., Klimova, V., & Zitek, V. (2021). The role of foreign technologies and R&D in innovation processes within catching-up CEE countries. PLoS ONE, 16(4), e0250307. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0250307
Rao, N. (2016). Do tax credits stimulate R&D spending? The effect of the R&D tax credit in its first decade. Journal of Public Economics, 140, 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2016.05.003
Rehman, N. U., Hysa, E., & Mao, X. (2020). Does public R&D complement or crowd-out private R&D in the pre and post-economic crisis of 2008? Journal of Applied Economics, 23(1), 349–371. https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2020.1762341
Schweiger, H., Stepanov, A., & Zacchia, P. (2022). The long-run effects of R&D place-based policies: Evidence from Russian science cities. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 14(3), 322–351. https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200289
Surani, S., Gendron, W., & Maredia, S. (2017). The economic impact of research and development. Econometrics, 3161, 1–20.
Tang, D., Li, Y., Zheng, H., & Yuan, X. (2022). Government R&D spending, fiscal instruments and corporate technological innovation. China Journal of Accounting Research, 15(3), 100250. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cjar.2022.100250
Vrontis, D., & Christofi, M. (2021). R&D internationalization and innovation: A systematic review, integrative framework, and future research directions. Journal of Business Research, 128, 812–823. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2019.03.031
Wang, C., Yi, J., Kafouros, M., & Yan, Y. (2015). Under what institutional conditions do business groups enhance innovation performance? Journal of Business Research, 68(3), 694–702. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2014.08.002
Wang, H., & Wu, D. (2015). An explanation for China’s economic growth: Expenditure on R&D promotes economic growth based on China’s provincial panel data of 1997–2013. Journal of Service Science and Management, 8(6), 809. https://doi.org/10.4236/jssm.2015.86082
Wu, J., Wang, C., Hong, J., Piperopoulos, P., & Zhuo, S. (2016). Internationalization and innovation performance of emerging market enterprises: The role of host-country institutional development. Journal of World Business, 51(2), 251–263. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jwb.2015.09.002
Yao, X., Hu, Y., Gong, H., & Chen, D. (2021). Characteristics and evolution of China’s Industry–University–Research collaboration to promote the sustainable development: Based on policy text analysis. Sustainability, 13(23), 13105. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132313105
Alam, A., Uddin, M., & Yazdifar, H. (2019a). Financing behavior of R&D investment in the emerging markets: The role of alliance and financial system. R&D Management, 49(1), 21–32. https://doi.org/10.1111/radm.12303
Alam, A., Uddin, M., & Yazdifar, H. (2019b). Institutional determinants of R&D investment: Evidence from emerging markets. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 138, 34–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.08.007
Audretsch, D. B., & Belitski, M. (2020). The role of R&D and knowledge spillovers in innovation and productivity. European Economic Review, 123, 103391. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103391
Barkhordari, S., Fattahi, M., & Azimi, N. A. (2019). The impact of knowledge-based economy on growth performance: Evidence from MENA countries. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 10(3), 1168–1182. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-018-0522-4
Bassanini, A., Scarpetta, S., & Hemmings, P. (2001). Economic growth: The role of policies and institutions. Panel data evidence from OECD countries (Working Paper No. 283). OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/722675213381
Beladi, H., Deng, J., & Hu, M. (2021). Cash flow uncertainty, financial constraints, and R&D investment. International Review of Financial Analysis, 76, 101785. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101785
Bengoa, M., Martínez-San Román, V., & Pérez, P. (2017). Do R&D activities matter for productivity? A regional spatial approach assessing the role of human and social capital. Economic Modelling, 60, 448–461. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.09.005
Bismala, L., Andriany, D., & Siregar, G. (2020). Development strategy analysis of technology business incubators in small medium enterprises accompaniment. Journal of Critical Reviews, 7(1), 221–225. https://doi.org/10.31838/jcr.07.01.39
Bor, Y. J., Chuang, Y. C., Lai, W. W., & Yang, C. M. (2010). A dynamic general equilibrium model for public R&D investment in Taiwan. Economic Modelling, 27(1), 171–183. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2009.08.007
Bottazzi, L., & Peri, G. (2007). The international dynamics of R&D and innovation in the long run and in the short run. The Economic Journal, 117, 486–511. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2007.02027.x
Bozkurt, C. (2015). R&D expenditures and economic growth relationship in Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(1), 188–198. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ijefi/issue/31967/352117?publisher=http-www-cag-edu-tr-ilhan-ozturk
Castellani, D., Piva, M., Schubert, T., & Vivarelli, M. (2019). R&D and productivity in the US and the EU: Sectoral specificities and differences in the crisis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 138, 279–291. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.10.001
Cassiman, B., & Veugelers, R. (2002). R&D cooperation and spillovers: Some empirical evidence from Belgium. American Economic Review, 92(4), 1169–1184. https://doi.org/10.1257/00028280260344704
Chen, D., Zheng, S., & Guo, L. (2015). The impact of science and technology policies on rapid economic development in China. In The Global Innovation Index 2015, 105.
Chen, Z., Liu, Z., Suárez Serrato, J. C., & Xu, D. Y. (2021). Notching R&D investment with corporate income tax cuts in China. American Economic Review, 111(7), 2065–2100. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20191758
Chu, A. C., Cozzi, G., Lai, C. C., & Liao, C. H. (2015). Inflation, R&D and growth in an open economy. Journal of International Economics, 96(2), 360–374. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2015.03.007
Cincera, M., Czartnitzki, D., & Thorwarth, S. (2007). Efficiency of public spending in support of R&D activities. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/8efc/9525770aa53ccfe5ba503d27b1ab254e3e5f.pdf
Coccia, M. (2018). Optimization in R&D intensity and tax on corporate profits for supporting labor productivity of nations. The Journal of Technology Transfer, 43(3), 792–814. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10961-017-9572-1
Cui, Y. J. (2016). Technological innovation in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS): An organizational ecology perspective. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 107, 28–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.02.001
Czyżewski, B., & Majchrzak, A. (2018). Market versus agriculture in Poland–macroeconomic relations of incomes, prices and productivity in terms of the sustainable development paradigm. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 24(2), 318–334. https://doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2016.1212743
Das, R. C., & Mukherjee, S. (2020). Do spending on R&D influence income? An enquiry on the World’s leading economies and groups. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 11, 1295–1315. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-019-00609-0
Darvas, Z. M. (2018). The macroeconomic implications of healthcare. Bruegel Policy Contribution, (No. 2018/11).
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427–431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
Godil, D. I., Sharif, A., Ali, M. I., Ozturk, I., & Usman, R. (2021). The role of financial development, R&D expenditure, globalization and institutional quality in energy consumption in India: New evidence from the QARDL approach. Journal of Environmental Management, 285, 112208. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112208
Gokhberg, L. (1999). R&D Statistics in Russia: Changes and challenges. Centre for Science Research and Statistics.
Guellec, D., & Van Pottelsberghe de la Potterie, B. (2004). From R&D to productivity growth: Do the institutional settings and the source of funds of R&D matter?. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 66(3), 353–378. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2004.00083.x
Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 37(3), 424–438. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791
Guceri, I., & Liu, L. (2019). Effectiveness of fiscal incentives for R&D: Quasi-experimental evidence. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 11(1), 266–291. https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20170403
Gujarati, D., & Porter, D. C. (2010). Functional forms of regression models. In Essentials of econometrics (pp. 132–177). McGraw-Hill Education.
Hasan, I., & Tucci, C. L. (2010). The innovation–economic growth nexus: Global evidence. Research Policy, 39(10), 1264–1276. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2010.07.005
Kirca, M., Canbay, Ş., Veysel, İ. N. A. L., & Genç, S. Y. (2021). Causality relationships between per capita income and research and development (R&D) expenditures in Asian Tigers, China, and Turkey. Sosyoekonomi, 29(48), 11–30. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.02.01
Khan, M., & Luintel, K. (2006). Sources of knowledge and productivity: How robust is the relationship? (No. 2006/6). OECD Publishing.
Knoll, B., Riedel, N., Schwab, T., Todtenhaupt, M., & Voget, J. (2021). Cross-border effects of R&D tax incentives. Research Policy, 50(9), 104326. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2021.104326
Lee, S. (2018). Growth, profits, and R&D investment. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 31(1), 607–625. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2018.1432380
Ientile, D., & Mairesse, J. (2009). A policy to boost R&D: Does the R&D tax credit work?. EIB Papers, 14(1), 144–169.
Muscio, A., & Ciffolilli, A. (2018). Technological diversity in Europe: Empirical evidence from agri-food research projects. Regional Studies, 52(3), 374–387. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2017.1301662
Muscio, A., & Ciffolilli, A. (2020). What drives the capacity to integrate Industry 4.0 technologies? Evidence from European R&D projects. Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 29(2), 169–183. https://doi.org/10.1080/10438599.2019.1597413
Olilingo, F. Z., & Putra, A. H. P. K. (2020). How Indonesia economics works: Correlation analysis of macroeconomics in 2010–2019. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics, and Business, 7(8), 117–130. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no8.117
Peng, L. (2010). Study on the relationship between R&D expenditure and economic growth of China. In Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Innovation & Management (Vol. 1725, p. 1728).
Phillips, P. C., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
Prokop, V., Stejskal, J., Klimova, V., & Zitek, V. (2021). The role of foreign technologies and R&D in innovation processes within catching-up CEE countries. PLoS ONE, 16(4), e0250307. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0250307
Rao, N. (2016). Do tax credits stimulate R&D spending? The effect of the R&D tax credit in its first decade. Journal of Public Economics, 140, 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2016.05.003
Rehman, N. U., Hysa, E., & Mao, X. (2020). Does public R&D complement or crowd-out private R&D in the pre and post-economic crisis of 2008? Journal of Applied Economics, 23(1), 349–371. https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2020.1762341
Schweiger, H., Stepanov, A., & Zacchia, P. (2022). The long-run effects of R&D place-based policies: Evidence from Russian science cities. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 14(3), 322–351. https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200289
Surani, S., Gendron, W., & Maredia, S. (2017). The economic impact of research and development. Econometrics, 3161, 1–20.
Tang, D., Li, Y., Zheng, H., & Yuan, X. (2022). Government R&D spending, fiscal instruments and corporate technological innovation. China Journal of Accounting Research, 15(3), 100250. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cjar.2022.100250
Vrontis, D., & Christofi, M. (2021). R&D internationalization and innovation: A systematic review, integrative framework, and future research directions. Journal of Business Research, 128, 812–823. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2019.03.031
Wang, C., Yi, J., Kafouros, M., & Yan, Y. (2015). Under what institutional conditions do business groups enhance innovation performance? Journal of Business Research, 68(3), 694–702. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2014.08.002
Wang, H., & Wu, D. (2015). An explanation for China’s economic growth: Expenditure on R&D promotes economic growth based on China’s provincial panel data of 1997–2013. Journal of Service Science and Management, 8(6), 809. https://doi.org/10.4236/jssm.2015.86082
Wu, J., Wang, C., Hong, J., Piperopoulos, P., & Zhuo, S. (2016). Internationalization and innovation performance of emerging market enterprises: The role of host-country institutional development. Journal of World Business, 51(2), 251–263. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jwb.2015.09.002
Yao, X., Hu, Y., Gong, H., & Chen, D. (2021). Characteristics and evolution of China’s Industry–University–Research collaboration to promote the sustainable development: Based on policy text analysis. Sustainability, 13(23), 13105. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132313105